问题详情

下段文章摘自《欧洲人可能支持美元》(Europeans May Prop the Dollar)，《纽约时报》，p.D1，1986-09-22。
为阻止美元相对于西德马克的贬值，欧洲各中央银行将不得不出售马克购买美元，对汇率进行干预。但是市场中的货币交易总量比政府所持有的全部资产多得多。
在外汇市场上每天都有价值几十亿美元的各种货币在进行交换。如果没有美国和日本的支持，即使欧共体两个最具经济影响力的成员——英国和联邦德国——所进行的干预都不会对市场产生多大的影响。然而，共同体各中央银行仅仅做出干预意图的声明就会对市场产生巨大的心理影响。
经济学家在给总统的报告中说只有当市场不寻常地无章可循时，或者是当干预与市场当前的运动方向一致时，干预才可能是有效的。
a．你同意上文所说的联邦德国对马克汇率的影响力很小的观点吗？
b．你同意上文关于干预效果的评价吗？
c．说明“仅仅作出干预意图的声明”如何对外汇市场产生“心理影响”。
d．用本章所学更精确地重述上文内容。
The following paragraphs appeared in the New York Times on September 22,1986(see“Europeans May Prop the Dollar，”p.D1)：
To keep the dollar from falling against the West German mark，the European central banks would have to sell marks and buy dollars，a procedure known as intervention．But the pool of currencies in the marketplace is vastly larger than all the governments' holdings．
Billions of dollars worth of currencies are traded each day．Without support from the United States and Japan，it is unlikely that market intervention from even the two most economically influential members of the European Community-Britain and West Germany-would have much impact on the markets．However，just the stated intention of the Community's central banks to intervene could disrupt the market with its psychological effect．
Economists say that intervention works only when markets turn unusually erratic，as they have done upon reports of the assassination of a President，or when intervention is used to push the markets along in a direction where they are already headed anyway．
a．Do you agree with the statement in the article that Germany had little ability to influence the exchange rate of the DM？
b．Do you agree with the last paragraph's evaluation of the efficacy of intervention？
c．Describe how“just the stated intention”to intervene could have a“psychological effect”on the foreign exchange market．
d．Try your hand at rewriting the above paragraphs in more precise language so that they reflect what you learned in this chapter．