问题详情

下列报道摘自《美元坚挺的惊讶》(Dollar's Strength a Surprise)，《纽约时报》，p.D1，1989-08-07：
“但是，现在有一种观点认为，经济正在朝”软着陆“的方向行进，经济增长明显放慢，通货膨胀率降低，但经济衰退并没有发生。
这种前景对美元的坚挺是有利的。原因有二：第一，软着陆不像衰退那样具有破坏性，因此，支撑美元的外国投资很可能持续下去：
第二，软着陆不会迫使美联储为刺激增长而降低利率。利率下降会对美元产生贬值的压力，这是因为，利率下降会使美元证券对外国人的吸引力下降，诱使人们抛出美元。此外。由软着陆预期而产生的乐观因素甚至可以抵消一些由利率下降带给美元的贬值压力。”
a．试用本章所学的汇率决定模型解释报道的第三段。
b．还有什么汇率决定因素有助于解释第二段？
The following report appeared in the New York Times on August 7,1989(“Dollar's Strength a Surprise，”p.DI)：
But now the sentiment is that the economy is heading for a“soft landing”with the economy slowing significantly and inflation subsiding，but without a recession．
This outlook is good for the dollar for two reasons．A soft landing is not as disruptive as a recession，so the foreign investments that support the dollar are more likely to continue．
Also，a soft landing would not force the Federal Reserve to push interest rates sharply lower to stimulate growth．Falling interest rates can put downward pressure on the dollar because they make investments in dollar-denominated securities less attractive to foreigners，prompting the selling of dollars．In addition，the optimism sparked by the expectation of a soft landing can even offset some of the pressure on the dollar from lower interest rates．
a．Show how you would interpret the third paragraph of this report using this chapter's model of exchange rate determination．
b．What additional factors in exchange rate determination might help you explain the second paragraph？